Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 22.595006 24.784818 27.240571 30.230603 33.818123 38.045440 43.500399
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 19.333260 22.149400 25.563058 30.118252 36.229228 44.467822 57.084292
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.261095 20.404897 24.442404 30.235072 38.783471 51.863858 75.938018
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.641453 18.914247 23.301067 29.959603 40.592927 58.836246 99.459847
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.397742 17.719057 22.323735 29.643400 42.158390 66.058334 131.443170
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.422907 16.758308 21.513721 29.377836 43.672263 73.947772 178.501061
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.642889 15.979040 20.851857 29.197994 45.253046 82.952028 255.056197
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.870263 15.134019 19.984685 28.510213 45.634282 89.367588 353.099110
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.615972 15.020474 20.226344 29.781536 50.481564 112.541300 921.277423
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 11.086672 14.446640 19.665434 29.481345 51.713799 125.645949 2542.361604
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.687766 14.040553 19.335835 29.563657 53.916723 145.808370 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.363162 13.724612 19.123126 29.837241 56.736691 174.391256 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 10.038364 13.392937 18.863981 30.002067 59.446548 210.665507 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.667572 12.965686 18.403882 29.680753 60.662372 242.453346 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.378368 12.652888 18.120469 29.703870 63.032299 296.907348 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.067736 12.287617 17.714326 29.397896 64.238538 350.129573 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.779369 11.943998 17.322777 29.075201 65.316723 416.029717 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.520088 11.635741 16.974915 28.811150 66.564880 507.862391 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 8.290057 11.365258 16.678936 28.634112 68.137457 649.247521 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 8.016537 11.010033 16.202622 27.967136 67.505662 727.182067 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.980065 11.052680 16.480879 29.196760 75.686328 1960.967414 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.776370 10.800293 16.174737 28.906150 76.838425 3348.068365 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.623963 10.629761 16.017601 28.985666 79.950035 15636.152179 NaN